5 AI-Powered Vikings vs. Lions Predictions for Week 18
The Minnesota Vikings (7-9) will travel to Detroit to face the NFC North rival Detroit Lions (11-5) in Week 18 with time running out for a postseason berth.
Everything is on the line for Minnesota in this game, as a win increases their playoff chances to 15%, according to the New York Times’ playoff model. On the other hand, the Lions have already clinched a top-three conference seed by winning their division and holding a three-game lead over all NFC South clubs.
Despite this, Detroit head coach Dan Campbell has already stated that his starters will face the Vikings. “That’s the plan right now, play our guys,” Campbell said to reporters on January 1. “They’re going to rest when we’re done with the season,” he adds. I guarantee you that. They’ll have plenty of time off.”
Here are five forecasts from Heavy Sports’ AI-driven projections model, produced by our partners at Quarter 4:
Although the projected over/under total for Quarter 4 (45.0) appears to be within a half-point of six of the seven major sportsbooks — with the exception of PointsBet at 46.0 — our model does diverge slightly on the spread.
All seven major sportsbooks, including ESPN Bet, have projected lines ranging from Lions -3.5 to Lions -3.0. On the evening of January 4, however, the line is set at Lions -2.0, a 1-to-1.5 point advantage for the Vikings.
On December 24, Detroit defeated Minnesota 30-24 on the road in the first 2023 encounter between the two organisations. Of course, the Vikings have a lot more at risk this time.
The Lions have won three of the last five matches. They have a 6.33-point average differential in those triumphs, while the Vikings have only a 3-point average differential in their two wins.
Jared Goff battled with turnovers last weekend against the Dallas Cowboys, but quarterback still threw for 271 yards, giving him 250 yards or more via the air in each of his previous three starts.
Based on those recent figures, our model predicts Goff will have a below-average performance (223.8 passing yards). As a result, Vikings starter Nick Mullens is anticipated to have a great game with 250.1 passing yards and a 71% completion rate.
The last time these two teams met, Minnesota let Mullens throw for 411 yards despite four interceptions. His yardage totals have fluctuated greatly in his four 2023 games, but this could be another game in which Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell sends the ball downfield early.
With a predicted 5.0 catches for 79 yards and a touchdown, superstar wideout Justin Jefferson is expected to lead the Minnesota passing offence on the receiving side.
The Lions could beat the Vikings on January 7, but our forecasts show that it won’t be the potent Detroit rushing assault that accomplishes it.
The Lions have averaged 140.06 yards per game on the ground this season, which ranks fourth in the NFL. Despite this, running backs David Montgomery (73.6) and Jahmyr Gibbs (54.7) are projected to combine for 128.3 yards in Week 18.
