The Michigan Wolverines will finally play a team with a small number next to its name on Saturday, as the entire country has been eagerly awaiting this matchup. The Penn State Nittany Lions are unquestionably the best team Michigan has ever seen, both offensively and defensively, and they at last offer the calibre of competition that the nation has been longing for.
Regardless of how difficult the opposition has been, anyone who has watched Michigan this year knows that they are a top team; SP+ concurs and has the Wolverines at the top of the rankings for several weeks. But Michigan needs to win a top-10 game and put up yet another strong effort if it hopes to finally placate the masses.
Michigan should win this game (and arguably do so convincingly), but do not overlook this Penn State team, especially on defense. Games in Happy Valley have gone down to the wire recently, and on paper this sets up to be a classic battle of titans. Of course, if the Wolverines play up to their talent level, this could end fairly lopsided again, leaving the national discourse with no choice but to acknowledge where this team is headed.
The performance of J.J. McCarthy and the offence against a respectable top-five defence will determine the outcome of this game. McCarthy shouldn’t have to put up any kind of historic effort because the Nittany Lions have only scored two offensive touchdowns in their last two meetings with the best defence in the nation, and their first-year quarterback is a middling player.
Last season, Donovan Edwards and Blake Corum’s nearly back-to-back 60-plus yard touchdown runs put Michigan ahead in the game. The Wolverines placed 11th in 2022 for runs of at least 30 yards, so this was nothing new. Not this year? Only four thus far, tied for 70th in the country. Penn State’s formidable defence, meanwhile, has only given up one rush of that length.
The Wolverines might try something new to set up some big plays, but more often than not, they’ll need to rely on J.J. McCarthy to move the ball. Expect a lot more well-planned quarterback runs than in any other game, just like last year, but also don’t be shocked if Michigan chooses to win via the air, which is something they haven’t done in a long time coming into a game like this.
With Johnny Dixon and Kalen King, Penn State does have two of the conference’s best corners. However, Roman Wilson is still unstoppable, and there’s a good chance that Donovan Edwards, Colston Loveland, and A.J. Barner will find openings against the other members of the defence. Still, this is among the better sections.
This implies that McCarthy will have to balance being cautious and leading the offence. McCarthy cannot give the Nittany Lions any short fields or points because they won’t be able to do much with the ball themselves (more on that in a moment). The defence will undoubtedly try to increase the number of takeaways, as Penn State is ranked second nationally in this category. Even though this is a big stage, no Heisman candidate would back down from it.
