GRAPEVINE, Texas — Whatever way you cut it, the College Football Playoff selection committee is going to have a difficult time making this choice.
Upon the announcement of the final ranking shortly after noon ET on Sunday, the committee will have faced its most challenging choice in the ten-year history of the four-team playoff. Several teams will be incensed. SEC runner-up On Selection Day, Georgia might become the first top-seeded team to drop out of the top four. Perhaps the first unbeaten Power 5 champion to be left out of the playoffs is Florida State.
Will the four best—or most deserving—be selected by the committee? “It is the best,” stated Bill Hancock, executive director of CFP, on Tuesday. “There is nothing most deserving in the committee’s vocabulary. They are tasked with ranking the top teams, and they accomplish this. Just remember that phrase: best teams.”
Here’s one last guess as to how the final ranking might turn out, right after Saturday’s games, while the committee is actually deciding which four to rank first:#
Why they could end here: The unbeaten Wolverines added a Big Ten championship against No. 16 Iowa to their resume, and they did it on a night when the top-ranked team on the committee, Georgia, lost to Alabama in the SEC title game. The three teams Michigan has defeated the best are No. 10 Penn State, No. 6 Ohio State, and now Iowa. Nothing that transpired during championship weekend is likely to alter the Wolverines’ advantage over the other unbeaten teams in the committee meeting room. One benefit of being the top overall seed is that the top seed in a CFP semifinal will not be geographically disadvantaged by the selection committee.
Why they could end here: The unbeaten Huskies have now defeated two teams ranked in the top ten in Oregon, enhancing their record that already includes victories over No. 20 Oregon State and the Pac-12 championship. Up until this weekend, Washington had destroyed the top one-loss team on the committee, and it may have a claim to the top slot. At the absolute least, Georgia’s defeat by Alabama ought to help Washington, at least somewhat.
Why they could end here: Not even Georgia, the defending national champion, can claim a double-digit victory over the SEC champion Longhorns. All season long, the selection committee has placed a high value on the Longhorns’ victory in Tuscaloosa during Week 2, which has given them
an advantage over the Crimson Tide in each of the previous five CFP rankings. The committee would have a hard time making an excuse to flip it the day after Texas easily defeated Oklahoma State to win the Big 12 championship. The only ways Alabama could finish ahead of Texas are if the committee feels that Alabama is now superior, and if the Tide defeated a superior opponent in their conference championship game, Georgia, the committee’s top pick.
Why they could end here: After defeating Georgia to win the SEC, the Crimson Tide now have the greatest victory of the year. However, the committee probably keeps them behind Texas due to the Longhorns’ defeat in Week 2. The SEC should continue to have a team in each of the last ten postseasons with Alabama.
